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Previously: Tracking Progress Towards Herd Immunity

I've updated my herd immunity tracker, the key changes are:

  • I've added a line at 70%, which seems to be the closest thing to a consensus estimate for the COVID-19 herd immunity threshold, though estimates range from 50 to 90%. We should also expect to see different thresholds in different states due to the "momentum" of the pandemic. A state that is getting more of its immunity from vaccinations and maintaining a low level of ambient infections should see immunity begin to kick in faster than a state where the pandemic is raging. The graph will also no longer rescale on state selection, making comparison easier.
  • I've changed the interpolation of vaccine data from a linear model to a more plausible simple exponential model which honestly just looks better on the graphs. A reminder that interpolation only occurs for the early dates before the CDC began releasing state by state vaccination data, so the most recent data is not modeled.
  • The chart should 🤞 now update daily, and will run a day or two behind the current date, aligning with the CDC's publishing schedule.
  • I've also included a table below the graph with my current estimates by state to make cross state comparisons and seeing the latest data easier.
Data as of 2021-03-07
State Estimated % Infected % Vaccinated Estimated % Immune
United States 29.3% 17.7% 47.0%
Alaska 19.7% 24.7% 44.4%
Alabama 34.0% 14.5% 48.5%
Arkansas 37.6% 16.1% 53.8%
Arizona 38.1% 19.5% 57.7%
California 26.5% 18.3% 44.8%
Colorado 24.0% 18.2% 42.2%
Connecticut 27.1% 24.1% 51.3%
District of Columbia 21.0% 20.5% 41.5%
Delaware 28.9% 17.8% 46.7%
Florida 30.0% 17.6% 47.6%
Georgia 34.3% 13.4% 47.7%
Guam 23.4% 21.2% 44.6%
Hawaii 5.7% 19.1% 24.8%
Iowa 30.6% 19.9% 50.5%
Idaho 33.3% 16.4% 49.7%
Illinois 30.5% 18.4% 48.9%
Indiana 31.1% 16.8% 47.8%
Kansas 33.1% 16.7% 49.7%
Kentucky 30.1% 18.5% 48.6%
Louisiana 33.0% 16.2% 49.2%
Massachusetts 26.9% 21.4% 48.1%
Maryland 21.1% 17.5% 38.6%
Maine 9.4% 19.7% 29.1%
Michigan 23.7% 17.3% 41.0%
Minnesota 26.8% 19.8% 46.5%
Missouri 26.9% 16.9% 43.8%
Northern Mariana Islands 0.9% 21.0% 22.5%
Mississippi 39.5% 16.7% 56.2%
Montana 30.7% 20.2% 50.9%
North Carolina 26.7% 17.4% 44.1%
North Dakota 38.5% 23.1% 61.7%
Nebraska 33.8% 18.4% 52.3%
New Hampshire 17.0% 19.8% 36.8%
New Jersey 40.4% 19.0% 59.4%
New Mexico 27.3% 24.6% 51.9%
Nevada 32.6% 17.3% 49.8%
New York 35.7% 17.7% 53.4%
Ohio 27.5% 17.2% 44.7%
Oklahoma 36.3% 20.5% 56.7%
Oregon 10.7% 17.6% 28.3%
Pennsylvania 25.3% 17.7% 43.1%
Puerto Rico 14.2% 12.4% 26.6%
Rhode Island 34.5% 21.5% 56.0%
South Carolina 33.8% 16.3% 50.2%
South Dakota 48.3% 23.9% 72.1%
Tennessee 38.8% 15.4% 54.3%
Texas 33.4% 15.5% 48.9%
Utah 32.0% 15.1% 47.1%
Virginia 23.2% 18.2% 41.4%
Virgin Islands 7.9% 14.7% 22.6%
Vermont 6.7% 20.1% 26.8%
Washington 15.1% 17.9% 33.0%
Wisconsin 34.3% 19.4% 53.6%
West Virginia 21.1% 20.5% 41.6%
Wyoming 29.4% 19.3% 48.7%