Herd Immunity II
Let's See How Far We've Come
Previously: Tracking Progress Towards Herd Immunity
I've updated my herd immunity tracker, the key changes are:
- I've added a line at 70%, which seems to be the closest thing to a consensus estimate for the COVID-19 herd immunity threshold, though estimates range from 50 to 90%. We should also expect to see different thresholds in different states due to the "momentum" of the pandemic. A state that is getting more of its immunity from vaccinations and maintaining a low level of ambient infections should see immunity begin to kick in faster than a state where the pandemic is raging. The graph will also no longer rescale on state selection, making comparison easier.
- I've changed the interpolation of vaccine data from a linear model to a more plausible simple exponential model which honestly just looks better on the graphs. A reminder that interpolation only occurs for the early dates before the CDC began releasing state by state vaccination data, so the most recent data is not modeled.
- The chart should 🤞 now update daily, and will run a day or two behind the current date, aligning with the CDC's publishing schedule.
- I've also included a table below the graph with my current estimates by state to make cross state comparisons and seeing the latest data easier.